Timeline Estimation Test
This is a tool for doing equivalent bet tests — a technique that helps you calibrate your predictions by comparing them to a chance wheel.
Two ways to win $10M: (1) if your timeline estimate is correct, or (2) spin a wheel with the same odds.
If you prefer the wheel, you're overconfident. If you prefer betting on your timeline, you're underconfident. Adjust until both feel equal.
— From "How to Measure Anything" by Douglas W. Hubbard
You believe there's a 90% chance of...
of
Your Prediction
Random Chance
Adjust the timeline until both options feel equally attractive
You believe there's a __% chance of ________ by ________
Click the button below when you're calibrated
Your calibrated estimate:
You believe there's a 90% chance of by
Equivalent Bet Test Tool
equiv-bet-test.chrisbarber.co