Equivalent Bet Test
This is a tool for doing equivalent bet tests — a technique that helps you calibrate your predictions by comparing them to a chance wheel.
Two ways to win $10M: (1) if your statement is correct, or (2) spin a wheel with the same odds.
If you prefer the wheel, you're overconfident. If you prefer betting on your statement, you're underconfident. Adjust until both feel equal.
— From "How to Measure Anything" by Douglas W. Hubbard
You believe there's a 90% chance of...
Your Statement
Random Chance
Adjust until both wheels feel equally attractive
You believe there's a __% chance of ________
Click the button below when you're calibrated
Your calibrated estimate:
You believe there's a 90% chance of
Equivalent Bet Test
equiv-bet-test.chrisbarber.co